Probabilism,entropies and strictly proper scoring rules

Accuracy arguments are the en vogue route in epistemic justifications of probabilism and further norms governing rational belief. These arguments often depend on the fact that the employed inaccuracy measure is strictly proper. I argue controversially that it is ill-advised to assume that the employed inaccuracy measures are strictly proper and that strictly proper statistical scoring rules are a more natural class of measures of inaccuracy. Building on work in belief elicitation I show how strictly proper statistical scoring rules can be used to give an epistemic justification of probabilism.An agent's evidence does not play any role in these justifications of probabilism. Principles demanding the maximisation of a generalised entropy depend on the agent's evidence. In the second part of the paper I show how to simultaneously justify probabilism and such a principle. I also investigate scoring rules which have traditionally been linked with entropies.     

Unified Model for Generation Complex Networks with Utility Preferential Attachment

In this paper, based on the utility preferential attachment, we propose a new unified model to generate different network topologies such as scale-free, small-world and random networks. Moreover, a new network structure named super scale network is found, which has monopoly characteristic in our simulation experiments. Finally, the characteristics ofthis new network are given.     

带有回报计划的动态客户关系管理模型及实验应用分析

在客户最大化效用及公司最大化CLV的动态环境下。对所提的带有回报计划的动态客户关系管理模型用于某超市的客户数据库中，发现模型的结果对这类客户是适用的。并给出了不同的客户状态空间对应的有效营销组合策略。结果表明：合适的回报计划可以促进客户的购买、提高公司的利润及缓解价格竞争。回报极限应该比客户的平均购买水平偏高，回报率应该与回报极限的改变方向一致。计划的时间范围应定在一年左右比较合适。对于累积购买水平较高的客户一般不邮寄商品信息。在回报计划的初期与末期不用打折。中期对那些购买次数很少的客户可以实行相应的降价策略。     

Optimal Investment in a Levy Market

In this paper we consider the optimal investment problem in a market where the stock price process is modeled by a geometric Levy process (taking into account jumps). Except for the geometric Brownian model and the geometric Poissonian model, the resulting models are incomplete and there are many equivalent martingale measures. However, the model can be completed by the so-called power-jump assets. By doing this we allow investment in these new assets and we can try to maximize the expected utility of these portfolios. As particular cases we obtain the optimal portfolios based in stocks and bonds, showing that the new assets are superfluous for certain martingale measures that depend on the utility function we use.     

Quadratic distances for capacity and bi-capacity approximation and identification

The application of multi-attribute utility theory based on the Choquet integral requires the prior identification of a capacity if the utility scale is unipolar, or of a bi-capacity if the utility scale is bipolar. In order to implement a minimum distance principle for capacity or bi-capacity approximation or identification, quadratic distances between capacities and bi-capacities are studied. The proposed approach, consisting in solving a strictly convex quadratic program, has been implemented within the GNU R kappalab package for capacity and nonadditive integral manipulation. Its application is illustrated on two examples.      

均值-方差效用函数在证券组合投资决策中的应用

本文利用均值—方差效用函数，按期望效用最大化准则建立并分析了证券组合投资决策模型。在投资者的效用函数为指数型效用函数时，得到了两基金定理分离权重的计算公式。得出了在均值——方差效用函数条件下期望效用最大化准则与M—V期望收益最大化准则一致的结论。     

Optimal Investment Strategies for an Insurer with SAHARA Utility

In this paper, we consider the optimal investment strategy which maximizes the utility of the terminal wealth of an insurer with SAHARA utility functions. This class of utility functions has non-monotone absolute risk aversion, which is more flexible than the CARA and CRRA utility functions. In the case that the risk process is modeled as a Brownian motion and the stock process is modeled as a geometric Brownian motion, we get the closed-form solutions for our problem by the martingale method for both the constant threshold and when the threshold evolves dynamically according to a specific process. Finally, we show that the optimal strategy is state-dependent.     

线性加指数效用函数的组合投资研究

应用无差异曲线法较好地解决了在投资决策分析中具有特殊重要地位的线性加指数效用函数的最优组合投资比例的求解问题,并给出实例予以说明.     

多周期公用工程系统运行的模型,优化方法与应用

针对多周期公用工程系统的运行优化问题，考虑了设备的启停费用的情况下。建立了混合整数非线性规划模型并证明了最优解的存在性。针对该运行优化问题本将其分解成若干子问题，然后利用改进的Hooke-Jeeves优化算法求解每个子问题。应用于具体实例，其数值结果与其它方法得到的相比。运行时间短，且更适合多周期公用工程问题的求解。     

Generating well-behaved utility functions for compromise programming

The purpose of this paper is to seek utility functions satisfying a weak condition which guarantees that the utility optimum always belongs to the compromise set. This set is a special subset of the attainable or feasible set, which is generated through the application of the well-known operational research approach called compromise programming. It is shown that there are large families of utility functions satisfying this condition, thus reinforcing the value of compromise programming as a good surrogate of the traditional utility optimum.Thanks are due to the reviewers for their helpful suggestions. The English editing by Ms. Christine Méndez is appreciated. The authors have been supported by the Comisión Interministerial de Ciencia y Tecnología (CICYT), Madrid, Spain.